As
I said in the preceding entry, scientists need to tell visceral, compelling
stories if we are to have any chance that the public will notice the Truth that
we Reveal. We have yottabytes of information about global warming, but Senator
Jim Inhofe can simply say that God told him there is no global warming, and
that settles it. (He vaguely refers to the Bible for support, but misquotes
it.) We scientists are the Revealers of Truth, at least as much as any group of
humans can be. We need to get our story out. This is part of the message I get
from Randy Olson’s Houston, We Have a
Narrative, which I introduced previously.
But
how can we get a compelling, visceral story out of global warming?
The
best stories have a single protagonist and often a single antagonist, good vs.
evil. It is not as successful if you have a whole population of protagonists or
antagonists. Stalin said that the suffering of an individual is a tragedy,
while the suffering of a multitude is a statistic. He knew a thing or two about
causing such statistics. I remember a church play when I was a teenager in
which two girls were chattering away while a boy was agonizing over the
suffering of the world. When he said, “My grandmother died,” the girls
immediately stopped chattering and came over to comfort him. Then when he said,
“Not really, but a million other grandmothers died,” the girls went right back
to their chattering.
The
protagonist need not be perfectly good or the antagonist perfectly evil, but
they need to be there. But with global warming, the protagonists are the
thousands of scientists and environmentalists who are trying to lead the world
toward an atmospheric carbon balance that will avoid catastrophe. And the
antagonists are everybody, including many scientists, who simply consume too
much energy, directly or indirectly, by driving vehicles that are bigger than
they need to be, using the air conditioning more than we need to, etc.
Corporations are also antagonists, but they are responding to our demand. Oil
companies could not make money if we decided we don’t want to burn as much oil.
But
maybe here we have the kernel of a good story here. Let’s start building a
plot. The antagonists are two gray-haired men who just happen, by merest
chance, to resemble the Koch Brothers, mega-giants of the oil industry. And in
their bored-room, they are depressed, because they have seen all the economic
analyses that show that demand for oil is decreasing even while most economic
growth and jobs are in wind and solar. Renewable energy is good for the
economy, but not for them. Oh, wait, this is getting good. Into the bored-room
comes the daughter-in-law of one of the men. She cries as she sees the charts
on the smart-boreds. (I can do even better. Got it!) She is holding their
little granddaughter. She says, Daddy,
you promised me that oil was the key to a golden future for our family, but all
around me I see climate disasters, and I just know that my daughter, your
grand-daughter, is going to grow up in a cataclysmic world of climate
disruption. Oh, Daddy, how could you do this to me? To her? Then, of
course, you need the morally-conflicted son who finally decides to leave his
high-paying oil job and join Earth First! and sabotage bulldozers. And then...
You
get the point. You can see why this kind of fiction might never get published
and would never become a movie, since there is so much money and political
power (are there any politicians who are not wholly dependent on industry
money?) against it. Now, meanwhile, there is a protagonist. A climate scientist
who just happens to look like Michael Mann is driving out in the countryside at
night, headed into New York City where he is going to fly, at the last minute,
to France, where he will be warmly embraced by President Emmanuel Macron, who
has invited American climate scientists to move to France (this part is real).
He has just said goodbye to his father, who happens to look like James Hanson.
But, in a scene that I am shamelessly stealing from the movie Silkwood, somebody forces his car over
to the side of the road...
At
the last minute, it is the son of the oil magnate who rescues the climate
scientist...
This
would be a dangerous narrative to promote. Corporations would not like it one
bit, and when they don’t like something, watch out. We are, therefore, left
with the complex, less visceral narrative, not just because of oil industry
money, but because the oil giants are not
the only antagonists.
The
climate denialists could come up with something similar. A novelist and
screenwriter could come up with an evil, secret organization of environmentalists
who want to kill the one, heroic climate scientist who knows the truth that
global warming is a hoax. The evil environmentalists drive around in blue
Priuses looking for their victims. The Antarctic ice isn’t really melting; it
is the evil, evil scientists who cause the glaciers to fall apart by blowing
them up with bombs. And the evil, evil scientists also issue false weather
reports so that families with smiling, playing kids will have picnics in river
valleys all unaware that a gigantic rain event is going to flood them to their
deaths, over which the scientists will drool in glee. Of course, this kind of
book is so stupid that it couldn’t get published.
Wait.
The above paragraph is pretty much a summary of Michael Crichton’s novel State of Fear. Millions have read it and
think it is pretty much a true picture, with the names changed to protect the
guilty. But while oil corporations could sue the ass off of anyone who would
write the first novel idea I proposed above, even with the names changed, who
has ever sued Michael Crichton for his novel? At least, a Google search turned
up nothing. And he’s dead now.
The
narrative that the oil companies are spreading is:
- The
oil companies aren’t in it for the money. Oil executives make thousands of
times more money than any climate scientist, but this does not, of course,
color their perception. They are totally free of the love of money.
- The
oil companies want to make the future more secure for you, your children, and
your grandchildren. They could not possibly be sacrificing your future for
short-term gain.
- The
oil companies are the only ones who can save us.
With
this kind of narrative, you can see why scientists like Michael Mann get death
threats. People who buy into the oil company narrative see climate scientists
as, practically, killers.
You
can see the problem. Climate science explains things, while denialists simply
accuse everyone else of being evil. The denialists have the thriller-story.
This
is the same problem that almost any scientific topic has. Take diabetes. (You
can have it. I have it, not too badly yet.) How can you tell a story that has a
single protagonist and single antagonist? You cannot start a story with someone
suffering multiple amputations or something; that would be too depressing. It
would be better to start with someone who has just experienced his first, and
frightening, diabetes-related event. He’s driving along in the country, and he
happens to look like me, and drive a car like mine (a bright green Prius), and
he suddenly starts going blind and has to pull over and park. It isn’t really
blindness; it is an ocular migraine, in which a small gray circle like a solar
afterglow spreads across the whole field of vision, breaking the visual
information apart into twinkles and scrambling it. In fifteen minutes it is all
over, the man’s vision has returned, but he realizes he should have taken the
earlier warning signs more seriously. This is scary without being depressing.
But
the antagonist? What would it be, a pancreas? Or would it be...ah, I’ve got it.
The antagonist could be a pharmaceutical corporation that wants to charge one
hundred billion zimbabwean dollars per pill for something you have to take
twice a day. The protagonist is a botanist who studies a rare species of tree
that has a phytochemical that can control diabetes, but the pharmaceutical
companies know about it and are hunting him down to get him from threatening
their multibillion dollar glucophage and insulin industry. Now, I wonder where
that idea came from? Actually, I discovered a plant extract that kills
bacteria, and a small pharmaceutical company was investigating it, but a big
company bought them out and stopped the research. I imagine that it was because
the chemical in my extract remains active even at high temperatures and after
sitting on a desk and drying out for months, and would thus be very cheap to
transport onto the battlefield and into the jungles... But, of course, I do not
know any of this.
My
point is that the only way to make major scientific topics such as global
warming or diabetes into gripping narratives would be to do things like this to
them. Or maybe some very creative person could come up with a middle
road between boring and overdramatized that would work. We’re still waiting for
that to happen, and it can’t happen soon enough.