Harrison Brown was a twentieth-century
nuclear chemist who developed some of the most important processes that went
into making the bombs that fell on Japan at the end of World War II. His role
in ushering in the age of nuclear war bothered him, however, and he became an
activist not only to work against nuclear proliferation but one of the leading
scientists of his time to analyze the prospects for the human future.

One
of the earliest books that faced the ecological challenges of human survival
was his 1954 book, The Challenge of Man’s Future. Remember that this was
more than a decade before the environmental movement began. Starting about
1968, dozens of books, some reasonable, some alarmist, came out claiming that
human civilization and industry was going to destroy the world. One of these
books, by Gene Marine, was called America the Raped, and the cover
picture showed a bulldozer destroying the entire natural world. But Harrison Brown’s
book predated the alarmism. On the cover, H. J. Muller, Albert Einstein, and
(of course) Supreme Court justice William O. Douglas praised Brown’s book.
Brown
took into consideration all the data he could find to make projections about
the future. First, about human population. He took a close look at human
demography: female survival and childbirth rates, for example. His book was one
of the earliest to have population pyramids which are now standard in every text. He considered that birth rates might
decrease if contraception was made widely available. But he also shared the
view of the Malthusians, among whom was a physicist of whom I had never heard
(Sir Charles Galton Darwin,
who wrote a book in 1953; guess whom he was descended from), that people will
have as many kids as they can unless restrained by law.
Then
he considered food production. How much food can we produce? Although neither
he nor anyone else actually foresaw the Green Revolution, he did consider
technological advances in food production, including the possibility, then new,
of large-scale hydroponics. He even considered the possibility that humans
could get most of their calories from Chlorella, a single-celled alga
that does not need farmland to grow. He said the Earth could support 100
billion people if everyone ate Chlorella, but he knew this would never
happen.
He
also considered the availability of energy and raw materials for
transportation, industry, etc. Nobody knew how much, or how little, coal and
oil there was. He said that there was a lot of coal and oil, as well as mineral
ores, but that we were rapidly depleting the easily available materials. He
made his estimates of mineral availability, even such rare minerals as
vanadium, based on the assumption that we will not recycle them. Many modern
“conservative” economists also do not believe that recycling is worthwhile.
Brown said there is a lot of oil, if you are willing to spend a lot of money to
extract it. No more gushers. He could not foresee fracking, but this is what
happened: fracking is not cheap. Brown considered biofuels. For example, he
said that 10 tons of sugarcane have as much energy as 6 tons of coal, but once
again it is hard work to use biofuels. Natural petroleum, he concluded, will be
a memory of the distant past.
Considering
all the data, Brown made predictions of what the human population of the Earth
would be in the future. His predictions were pretty good for 1954, but he
underestimated human population growth. He predicted 6.0 billion people by 2025,
and 6.7 billion by 2050. But we are, in 2020, rapidly approaching the 8 billion
mark.
Overshadowing
everything, in 1954, was the real risk of nuclear annihilation, something about
which he knew a lot. He considered war to be inevitable. It was “...likely that
industrial civilization is doomed to extinction.” The elimination of war, as
impossible as it was and is, he considered to be a necessary but not
sufficient condition for the persistence of civilization. War could, Brown
said, destroy civilization, and whatever might emerge in the aftermath would be
something very different from civilization as we know it. For example, much of
our technical knowledge would be valueless if society collapsed, and would then
be forgotten.
Brown
said that the United States had a special role to play in the future of the
world. “...the destiny of humanity depends upon our decisions and upon our
actions. We still possess freedom, our resources, and our knowledge, to
stimulate the evolution of a world communtiy within which people are well fed
and within which they can lead free, abundant, creative lives. Or we can refuse
to take constructive action, in which case man will almost certainly start down
the steep incline... Never before in history has so much responsibility been
inherited by a group of human beings.” America needed to be a peacemaker.
This fantasy is becoming less likely every year.
My
conclusion is this. Listen to the scientists! Not to the talking heads paid by
corporations, nor to environmental extremists. Listen to the people who analyze
and try to understand the data! Listen to the International Panel on Climate
Change. And realize that, if the past is any guide, the scientific predictions
will be underestimates of the perils we will face, just as Brown’s
underestimated our current population by two billion people.